The sports betting landscape changes constantly and is affected by various factors. One of these factors is player injuries. The absence of several players, or one especially valuable player, can have an adverse effect on how well a team performs and reduce its chances of success.
So, if you are betting on sports, it’s vital to be aware of current injuries. The most common of these injuries include:
- Strains and sprains
- Knee injuries
- Shin splints
- Groin pulls
You must also recognize the impact these injuries may have on games you are thinking of placing a wager on. In this article, we examine this issue in more detail, consider examples of injuries’ effects, and examine strategies for accounting for injuries when betting.
How injuries impact betting on sports at casinos
The impact that injuries can have on how a team performs means they also affect betting lines. An injury to a key player will often cause the odds to shift against the team involved. This shift in odds is vital to consider when you are betting on any sports, including US sports leagues such as the:
- NBA
- NHL
- NFL
Monitoring and understanding shifting odds impacts how successful your betting is. You will see shifting odds reflected when you visit casinos like those in this list from wikiHow, and understanding the impact of injuries on these odds allows you to select the bets that provide the best value. So, before you place a bet, keep up to date with the progression of player injuries and how the odds are changing as a result.
Ignoring player injuries when betting can be costly. It can result in betting on a team seriously hampered by an injury to a key player, which can result in a loss. This applies even after a player returns from injury, as the performance of many players remains impaired. As mentioned in an Oxford Academic Journal,
“Fewer than half of basketball players who suffered a groin/hip/thigh, knee, or ankle injury played in the National Basketball Association 2 y following injury. Fewer than half of these players returned to similar performance following a severe injury.”
Conversely, watching the latest news concerning player injuries may allow you to take advantage of generous odds if a player is likely to return unexpectedly.
Examples of how sports betting lines can be affected
You can see an example of how player injuries affect team performance in the failure of Philadelphia Flyers to qualify for the playoffs. After Sean Walker was traded, injuries to Nick Seeler, Jamie Drysdale and Rasmus Ristolainen, further hampered the teams progress and led to betting betting lines like TB -140 and PHI +120 before the game against Tampa Bay (TB) Lightning despite the Flyers having home advantage.
Things are looking up for the Flyers next season following the announcement that Drysdale should be ready for training camp. However, bettors should monitor early season action before taking a chance on the team.
Over in the NBA, the Los Angeles Lakers struggled with injuries all last season. These injuries had an impact on betting. For example, the betting line for the team’s game against the Phoenix Suns reflected injuries to Christian Wood, Cam Reddish, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Gabe Vincent.
The injuries were a significant consideration in the Suns starting as -4 favorites with a -175 money line. It will be interesting to see how injuries will affect the coming season for the Lakers and whether they can improve on last season’s performance of finishing eighth in the Western Conference before being eliminated from the playoffs by the Denver Nuggets.
Prospective bettors will get some insight into current injuries and the performance of the team during the recently announced pre-season games against Minnesota on October 2, Phoenix on October 6, and Golden State on October 15.
Strategies for accounting for injuries when betting
It’s clear that player injuries affect sports betting lines. There is also no doubt that injuries are common in sports leagues like the NBA, where players are often out of action due to problems such as knee injuries, ankle sprains, and muscle strains.
So, having strategies for accounting for injuries when placing a bet is essential. The most effective strategies are listed below.
Follow the latest news about sports injuries.
The most effective way to do this is to look for information from sports teams. They update their websites and social media channels with the latest injury information. Other useful sources of information include news items from top sports journalists, online injury databases, and sports betting forums.
Use analytics tools to understand how to incorporate injury data in betting choices.
An example is analyzing historical information about certain sporting events or matches between teams. This information reveals how players have impacted the action in games and why they might affect the result if they are missing with an injury.
Study patterns of how injuries affect team performance.
This aspect of research also involves looking at historical data. In this case, examining how teams perform when players are not included in the squad is a good indication of how the loss of these players through injury will affect the result of a game.
Spread bets across various sports.
Being a fan of a certain sport makes it tempting to bet only on that sport. However, if injuries are likely to be a factor in a specific event, it often makes sense to reduce the risk by betting on events in other sports.
Bet on several games.
For people who bet on their own team as an extra form of interest when watching the game, this may not be of interest. However, for sports bettors who want to increase their chances of success, betting on several games makes sense, as it mitigates the effect of injuries in a specific game.
Choose different types of bets, including money lines, point spreads, and over/under.
Opting for various types of bets reduces the impact of injuries affecting the outcome of one betting type.
Popular betting types to consider include moneyline bets placed on the outcome of a game, point spread betting related to the margin of victory, and over/under bets that relate to whether a specific statistic will be higher or lower than a quoted figure.
Use live betting options to take account of player injuries in play.
Live betting is the best way to account for injuries during a game. For example, if a player receives an injury in the first quarter of a game, a bettor may want to bet live in play to place a wager on the other team.
Combining these strategies is often the best option. For example, bettors can research the potential impacts of a player’s injury on the outcome of a game. This gives a good indication of how results will be affected. Bettors can also spread the risk of betting by placing wagers on various sports and games. In addition, they can further cover potential losses by using live betting to make changes during play.
Choosing this combined approach allows bettors to make the most informed betting choices and guard against the potential adverse effects of player injuries. Of course, there is never certainty with sports betting. However, research and preparation help, as does using live betting options to take account of what happens during a game.
